Independent Voters Rule New Hampshire
Posted on November 24, 2007 - Filed Under Elections, News, President, Third Party
http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/652104/22728682
By Mark Matthews
From New HampshireVoting in New Hampshire is easy. It’s the choices that are a bit more complicated.
New Hampshire voters used to be predominantly Republican. As more people moved into the state from Massachusetts, the Republican majority shifted toward the Democrats. But the dominant political affiliation in the granite state today isn’t either of the two. Independent voters, those who haven’t aligned with the Republican or Democratic Party, are far and away the biggest voting group in the state. Right now they number 45% of New Hampshire voters and Independents are growing in number faster than either Republicans or Democrats.
This time of year there’s a big advantage to being “independent.” New Hampshire voting laws allow Independents to show up at the polls on primary day and declare themselves either Republican or Democratic, depending on which candidate they’ve decided to back.
The conventional wisdom here is most Independents will go for a Democratic ballot this time around. There is just more buzz about the Democratic candidates. And this assumption is helping to shape the campaigns because if the Independents swing towards the Democratic contenders, there will be fewer votes for the Republicans and those that do back the GOP will be the party’s base. So candidates like Mitt Romney are in New Hampshire talking up the issue of immigration. This is not nearly as big an issue in New Hampshire as it is in California. But Romney’s campaign believes a significant portion of the Republican base feels very strongly about illegal immigration and will be motivated to vote for Romney as opposed to John McCain who helped author the failed Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill.
Romney’s strategy follows what we’re describing as the conventional wisdom, but it’s not without risk. Let’s say that Hillary Clinton is able to hold onto the twenty point lead she is enjoying right now in New Hampshire. Maybe Clinton’s poll numbers improve a little. If those independent voters go to the polls on primary day believing that Clinton is the inevitable nominee, they could very easily shift and decide to vote on the republican ballot where their vote would have more of an impact.
If that happens, a Republican candidate who has been appealing strongly to the conservative base may find himself in a fix.
New Hampshire is a fascinating place this time of year, a place where voters can change faster than the foliage.
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